Demographic Study

Montgomery ISD releases updated third-party enrollment and growth projections
Posted on 08/14/2023
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Population and Survey Analysts (PASA) projects continued growth across the district

Montgomery ISD will grow by at least 6,000 students, and as many as 8,000 students over the next 10 years, according to Population and Survey Analysts (PASA). PASA specializes in projecting residential development and identifying when and where new schools are needed in the future.

In an updated demographic report, PASA shared that Montgomery ISD enrollment has grown nearly 12 percent over the past five years, adding 1,001 students from 2017 to 2022. According to the report, the growth rate in MISD is projected to increase over the next 10 years with the district reaching over 16,000 students in 2032 in a “moderate” growth scenario and over 18,000 in a “high” growth scenario. Current enrollment in the district is just below 10,000 students.

“Montgomery ISD has worked with PASA for many years,” Interim Superintendent Dr. Amy Busby said. “They are a valued partner in our long-range planning, providing critical data to help guide district decision-making as we continue to see steady increases in student enrollment.”

While PASA’s report is focused on long-term trends, it also considered the impact of recent contractionary monetary policies on the housing market, since new housing construction is the largest driver of future growth for a school district. The report projects 12,072 new single-family units over the next ten years, 88% of total new housing projections for the area.

Currently, 16 subdivisions with more than 100 homes are being developed in the school district. These include Pine Lake Cove, Lake Conroe Village, Lone Star Landing and Lake Conroe Forest. The report also identifies several planned or probable developments and a growing potential for future master-planned communities in the western portion of the school district, stemming from the completion of the Aggie Expressway.

Funds from the district’s May 2022 bond package have been allocated to the construction of Creekside Elementary School, slated to open in August 2024. Creekside Elementary School will be located behind Lake Creek High School off FM 2854 and alleviate enrollment growth at both Keenan Elementary School and Stewart Creek Elementary School. The district will hold a town hall meeting and attend PTO and PTA meetings on campuses this fall to gather input about proposed attendance boundaries for the new school.

PASA’s research supports a need to address overcrowding at Keenan Elementary, projecting an additional 293 students over the next five years, and Stewart Creek Elementary, projecting an additional 409 students over the same period.

Additionally, in a proactive measure, the district included funds for land, planning and design of a third junior high school as part of the 2022 bond. According to the report, a third junior high school will be needed by August 2027, as Montgomery Junior High and Oak Hills Junior High are projected to see student enrollment exceed practical capacity as soon as 2028.

The annual demographic study also recommended adding capacity via an additional elementary school and a third high school within the next 10 years.

“Montgomery ISD is expecting significant population growth over the next ten years,” Board President Laurie Turner said. “The data that PASA provides is key in assisting our senior leadership team in making well-informed recommendations to our Board of Trustees to ensure the proper resources are in place to provide a safe, excellent learning experience for each of our students.”

PASA’s full report is posted on the MISD website, here. A presentation summarizing the report can be viewed here.

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